Price Cycles in the German Gasoline Market

The study of gasoline price cycles has long been part of economic research and much of the literature examines where the so-called Edgeworth price cycles occur and how their shape is influenced. The existence of price cycles has been documented in retail gasoline markets in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway and Germany. Several researchers have investigated in which markets price cycles are more likely to occur and which factors influence the shape of the cycles. Government institutions also examined the German gasoline market. The Federal Cartel Office observed daily and weekly price cycles as well as a dominant oligopoly. As a result, the Market Transparency Unit for Fuels was established to reduce information asymmetry between suppliers and consumers and thus enhance competition. Since December 2013, all petrol stations in Germany are obliged to report their prices in real time to this unit, which are made available online to consumers, and thus also to the scientific community. This new and unique data source makes it possible for the first time to analyse price cycles in different regions in Germany without relying on daily or even weekly average prices. For this thesis, I use a variety of price data between March 2014 and March 2019 and contribute to the existing empirical literature on how price cycles occur in different market structures, how price cycles respond to supply shocks and to what extent market power is exercised.