Exploring the causes of failure in community managed containerised solar mini-grids: A coupled infrastructure systems framework analysis

Rural community mini-grid systems face long-term sustainability challenges that may adversely affect the livelihoods of surrounding communities. In this paper, we aim to explore the causes of failure in such systems, drawing on coupled infrastructure systems, a framework that provides an interactive perspective on the management and governance of community mini-grids. We analyse the dynamic interaction of influencing factors on four community-managed mini-grid cases in Tanzania to demonstrate how these systems are embedded in complex interrelations among social, soft, hard, human infrastructure, and exogenous drivers, which often interact in reinforcing ways that threaten sustainability. Utilising causal loop diagrams, the analysis highlights feedback effects within different infrastructure systems, with reinforcing feedback loops that connect various factors, contributing to cascading failures in the mini-grid cases. Based on the empirical data, our analysis concludes that mini-grid failure is not derived from an isolated financial, technical, or social obstacle, but rather from complex, dynamic interactions among system components. The study commends the effective diffusion of information between central government institutions and local government bodies, which initiate such projects, to support informed decision-making, promote accountability, and strengthen local governance structures. Enhancing such coordination is essential for the long-term viability of community-managed mini-grids.