Envisioning the future for southwestern Ethiopia / Egeree kibba lixa Itoophiyaa agarsiisuu

Southwestern Ethiopia is a globally recognised biodiversity hotspot, the place of origin and centre of genetic diversity of Coffea arabica, and home to millions of smallholder farmers. Both the lives of these farmers and the natural environment in southwestern Ethiopia are rapidly changing. How can such change be navigated to ensure the best possible outcomes for both people and the environment? This small book is an invitation to envisage what the future might hold for southwestern Ethiopia, and how it can be shaped in such a way that it delivers the greatest benefits to its people and the environment. To envisage plausible development trajectories, we worked with a wide range of local and regional stakeholders, including community members, government representatives, NGOs, and academics. Together with these stakeholders, we summarised socioeconomic and environmental changes that are taking place in the region, and systematically investigated how these changes influence one another. Considering uncertainties in some trends, we articulated four plausible development trajectories. These socalled “scenarios” provide four alternative narratives of what the future might look like in southwestern Ethiopia in 20 years from now. The four scenarios describe a gradient of development options, from intensified food production, through a mixture of cash crops and food production (including the establishment of a new biosphere reserve), to a primary focus on coffee investment. We describe these scenarios in detail in this book, as well as providing an overview of the different opportunities and risks associated with each scenario. We encourage to see the scenarios outlined here not as predictions of what the future will hold, but rather as a starting point for proactively approaching the future. What kinds of aspects of certain scenarios are desirable? Which aspects are undesirable, and therefore should be avoided? Which actions, in turn, should be taken to encourage desirable aspects, and avoid undesirable aspects? We hope that discussing questions such as these will help to stimulate fresh thinking about how to best navigate development challenges in southwestern Ethiopia.

Kibba lixa Itoophiyaa lubbuu qabeeyyiin hedduun (biodiversity) iddoo itti argaman ta’u akka addunyaatti kan beekamee fi bunni gosti arabikaa (Coffea arabica) iddoo itti argame akkasumas gidduu gala badhaadhinaati. Qe’ee qotee bultoota miliyoonaati. Kibba lixa Itoophiyaa akkaataan jireenyi qonnaan bultoota kanneenii fi haalli qilleensaa saffisaan jijjiiramaa jira. Jijjiiramni akkanaa kun bu’aa gaarii uummataa fi naannoof akka fidu akkamitti qorachuun danda’ama? Kitaabni xinnoon kun egereen kibba lixa Itoophiyaa maal akka fakkaatu uummannii naannoo fi bulchinsi sadarkaa ol’aanaan akka irraa huubatanii fayyadamaniif haala kamiin hojjetamuu qaba kan jedhu ilaaluuf akka afeerraatti kan dhiyaatedha. Daandii adeemsa gara fuulduraatti ta’uu dandahu (ta’uu malu) ilaaluuf qooda fudhattoota dhiyeenyatti argamanii fi kan naannoo hedduu wajjin miseensota hawaasaa, bakka bu’oota mootummaa, miti mootummaa fi hayyoota barnootaa dabalate wajjin hojjenneerra. Qooda fudhattoota kanaa wajjin ta’uudhaan kibba lixa biyyatti irratti jijjiirama hawaas-dinagdee fi haala naannoo irra gahaa jiruu akkasumas mala qoranno dhaan deggaramuun akkaataan jijjiiramni kun tokko jijjirama isa biroo irratti dhiibbaa geessisu sirnaan qorachuun goolabneerra. Jijjiramoota gara fulduraatti nuti kan hin beekiin garuu uumamuu kan dandahanis (uncertainties) adeemsa qoranno kana keessatti xiyyeeffannoo keessaa galchuun egeree naannoo kanaa keessatti haalota amansiiso tahan kan gara fulduraatti uumamuu dandahan yokaan tahuu malan afur keenyeerra. Haloota afran kanas “haala tahuu dandahu” (scenarios) jenne moggafneerra. Filannoon haalota tahuu dandahan afur caqafaman amma irraa jalqabee waggaa 20 gara fuulduraatti egareen kibba lixaa Itoophiyaa maal akka fakkaatu ni ibsa. Haala tahuu dandahu (scenarios) arfan akka filannootti kaawaman kun haala misoomaa naanno kanaa kan ibsan yeroo tahan ibsi haalota tahuu dandahan kunis ibsa midhaan nyaataa haala ammayyaan oomishu dabalate, midhaan galii oomishu, oomisha walmakaa midhaani fi mukeewwan (hundeeffama bakkeewwan kunuunsa uumamaa) dabalatee akkasumas hanga xiyyeffannoo invastimantii bunaatti kennutti kanjiran ofkeessaa qaba. Haala tahuu dandahu (scenarios) kaaniin bal’inaan kitaaba kana keessatti ilaala. Akkasumas carraa fi soda tokkoon tokkoo haala tahuu dandahu wajjin walqabatan walumaa galatti ni ilaala. Haata’uuti haala tahuu dandahu (scenarios) kana keessatti caqafaman egareen maal akka fakkaatu akka ragaatti akka hin ilaalle fi garee egaree si’aayinaan ilaaluuf akka qabxii ka’umsaatti akka ilaaltan ibsu barbaanna. Haala tahuu dandahu (scenarios) gaarii irratti ilaalcha akkamiitu filatama? Ilaalcha akkamiitu hin filatamu? isa kamtu dhabamsiifamuu qaba? Gama biraatiin immoo ilaalcha filatame jajjabeessuuf gochaa kamtu fudhatamuu qaba? Ilaalcha hin filatamne dhabamsiisuuf gochaa kamtu fudhatamuu qaba? Qabxiileen armaan olii qabxiilee marii ni ta’u jechuun abdanna. Gaaffiileen kana fakkaatan hudhaalee misooma kibba lixa Itoophiyaa ilaallate yaada haaraa akka yaadamu ni godha.