Title: ★ TASK: Predict the Election Outcome
Course: US Election 2016-Leuphana Copy > Section: 4. The Election In Our State

[fa-check-square-o fa-3x pull-left fa-muted]In this task, you will...
  - focus on your adopted U.S. state and become an expert on what makes your state’s population ‘tick’ politically;
  - research the state’s demographics, local media, political leaders, culture, and voting history;
  - based on your research, make an informed prediction about your state’s vote on Election Day.

In 2016, as in most election cycles, the race for President of the U.S. is going to be neck-and-neck. Take a closer look at your adopted U.S. state and become its ‘virtual citizen’—see who lives there, what the population’s economic situation is, what they read and watch to learn about the election, and how they will vote on Election Day.

1    Class discussion   [fa-comments-o]

First of all, review your initial hypotheses from the ★ TASK: Explore Your State and TASK: Who Would You Vote For? and take stock of the information you have collected so far that could help you predict your state's election outcome. Discuss in class how your state will likely vote. (If you have used the Project Journal, take this into account here as well.) Use the first page of the State Fact Sheet as a resource, as well as the following guiding questions:

[fa-question-circle]   Guiding questions

- Has your state voted solidly for one of the two parties in the past or is it rather a swing state?
- Is your state the traditional ‘home state’ of any of the two candidates?
- What do the state’s demographics tell you about the people living there?
- What is the current economic situation in your state?
- Are some campaign issues more (or less) important in your state than elsewhere in the U.S.?
- How do local media report on the election campaign?

Based on the information you have reviewed so far, decide whether your state will most likely vote for Democrats or Republicans, or whether it is unclear.

2    Group research and presentation  [fa-book]   [fa-comments-o]

Now, research the reasons why you think your state is going to vote one way or another. In other words, why would your state prefer one candidate/party over the other?

a. Research

Form expert groups, for example on state history, local media, elected representatives, economy, education etc., and conduct research on these topics starting from the second page of the Fact Sheet. Be prepared to briefly present your findings to your classmates.

b. Presentation

Each group presents their findings in class (decide on an appropriate procedure). When all findings are shared, continue the discussion from above (part 1) and finalize the prediction for your state’s election outcome.

3    Submit your prediction   [fa-pencil]

Submit your class's prediction for the election outcome in your state via the DATABASE: Ballot box & competition in the Virtual Town Hall. When submitting your results, provide the most significant reasons for your projected outcome in a rationale of not more than 100 words.

[fa-info-circle] If you wish to complete the TASK: Participate in the Student Competition and submit your own product to the student competition, please wait and submit your prediction and product together.

[fa-glyphicon-plus] [fa-files-o] Materials and resources

Handout/PDF Teach About US: State Fact Sheets

[fa-lightbulb-o fa-2x]   Self-study tips for this task Doing research    Giving presentations